Ehsan Fazili/Srinagar

The fate of many political bigwigs among 963 contestants of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir locked in three-phased elections to 90 Assembly seats held for the first time after a decade would be unveiled on Tuesday.

Out of the four former Chief Ministers of the erstwhile State, only Omar Abdullah, Vice President of the National Conference is contesting from two Assembly constituencies. Omar, who started his political career as a Member of Lok Sabha followed by a full term as Chief Minister is contesting from Ganderbal and Budgam constituencies in central Kashmir.

He posted this on X on the eve of the counting of votes:

By this time tomorrow it will all be clear. Now if only I could go to sleep & wake up 24 hours later I’d be a happy person. Nerves!!!! pic.twitter.com/72pb0sFCCi

— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) October 7, 2024

Omar was a bit skeptical of the presence of Baramulla MP Abdul Rashid Sheikh aka Er Rashid. On the scene and hence contested from two places, just in case. He had recently tasted defeat at the hands of Engineer in the Lok Sabha elections.

Former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti has stayed out and instead, her daughter Iltija Mufti is contesting from Bijbehara. Mehbooba was the last chief minister of J&K State before Article 370 was removed by the Narendra Modi government bringing in cataclysmic changes in J&K.

Iltija Mufti, a third-gen politician, is a Media Advisor to her mother in the PDP. Like many other contestants, Iltija has drawn large crowds during the election campaign in the first phase of elections held on September 18.

Two former chief ministers who have vigorously campaigned in these elections include the National Conference President Dr Farooq Abdullah and Ghulam Nabi Azad, formerly of Congress, now heading his two-year-old Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP).

NC’s main plank has been to restore Article 370 and Statehood to J&K, apart from the Autonomy resolution of 2000 and the protection of land and employment rights to the people of J&K.

The long-time Congressman, former Chief Minister, Union Minister, and lastly leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Ghulam Nabi Azad, who returned to his home State, has also actively campaigned for his newly constituted party, the DPAP. The party had covered a larger political space when it was formed in 2022, with most of the senior Congress leaders joining Azad. However, soon it was dented with the accusations floating about being backed by the BJP.

Azad’s party has fielded 10 candidates in the Assembly elections. Azad has been talking about progress and development in J&K, on the pattern of his tenure as Chief Minister between 2005 and 2008, at the head of the PDP-Congress coalition Government.

Unlike other regional parties, Azad has been averse to any reference to the restoration of Article 370 or Statehood. He has made it clear that only the Central Government could restore Statehood to J&K.

Those in the fray other than NC-Congress or PDP include the BJP leaders including its State president, Ravinder Raina and Devinder Singh Rana. Other senior BJP leaders, though not contesting, include former Deputy Chief Minister, Dr Nirmal Singh and Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, Kavinder Gupta.

Devinder Singh Rana, who was first elected to the Legislative Assembly as a National Conference member in 2014 from Nagrota constituency in Jammu, a member of the Legislative Council in 2007, and re-elected for his second term, is among the frontline BJP leaders. He was also a Political Advisor to former Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah. Brother of the Union Minister, Dr Jitendra Singh, Devinder Singh Rana quit the National Conference and joined the BJP in October 2021.

Ravinder Raina, BJP’s State president and a former MLA from the Nowshera constituency of Rajouri district in Jammu, is among the party’s front-runners. He has been campaigning for the party in all the areas of J&K, mostly in remote areas of the Kashmir valley engaging mainly the youth.

In Kashmir, analysts would be interested in the fate of the Jamaat-e-Islami proxy candidates who contested as independents from five constituencies in the wake of ban on their party. Also CPI(M) candidate and a four time MLA Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami is also pitted against one such candidates in Kulgam. Will he make it for the fifth consecutive time? 

In the Kashmir valley, there are other factors at play, including the emergence of the newly elected MP, Abdul Rashid Sheikh aka Er Rashid (AIP), defeating Omar Abdullah from the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency of North Kashmir. He has been a two-time MLA from Langate in Kupwara district. His next-door contestant, Sajad Lone of Peoples Conference in his maiden contest in 2014 got elected from Handwara with his party candidate from Kupwara. Both Sajad Lone and Er Rashid could make a dent in the bastion of National Conference.

It however, remains to be seen whether these elections, first in the post-August 5, 2019 scenario, lead to a clear mandate or there is again a way for coalition, a common feature in the last three Assembly elections.

Moreover, the role of political stalwarts seems to be important in the formation of the first elected UT government. It has been a long transition from the barren political landscape five years ago to the present democratic exercise.

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The number of Assembly seats has gone up from 87 to 90 with the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission 2022. Also, the provision of a Legislative Council (Upper House) has been abolished under the new system.