Deepa Kadam

The political landscape of Mumbai is intricately woven with the diverse interests and affiliations of its populace. Among the key constituents shaping its electoral dynamics, the Muslim community emerges as a significant force. Examining the recent shifts and alliances, it becomes evident that the inclinations of Muslim voters hold considerable sway over the city's electoral outcomes.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and the 'MIM' alliance succeeded in creating a big divide in the votes of the anti-BJP alliance in the state. However, in all the constituencies in Mumbai, this alliance did not show much influence.

Apart from winning the seat of Aurangabad (Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar), the alliance did not score. In the city and suburbs of Mumbai, the Muslim community constitutes about 20 to 22 percent of the population. The 'MIM', with its completely Muslim-centric politics, did not get many votes in Mumbai. 

Now there is a split between Shiv Sena and NCP in the state. In such a situation, who will the Muslim voter who influences three to four constituencies in Mumbai go to in this year's election? The Muslim community in Mumbai has traditionally (except for two elections after the 92 riots) sided with the Congress.

After the formation of Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress Maha Vikas Aghadi in 2019, a different equation was formed in the state. But since Shiv Sena, a party that is a staunch supporter of 'Hindutva' and has been with the BJP for 30 years, has come together with the Congress-NCP, there have been questions as to whether this will affect the Muslim vote bank.

Uddhav Thackeray insists that 'Yes, the Shiv Sainiks demolished Babri', yet his meetings see a significant presence of the Muslim community. As a result of being with Congress, Uddhav Thackeray is coming forward as a strong face of anti-BJP, so it becomes necessary to check that the Muslim community on the periphery is taking up the saffron flag.

Mumbai (South), Mumbai (South-Central), and Mumbai (North-Central) have a large number of Muslim voters in Mumbai city. The number of Muslims is also significant in Mumbai (North West), Mumbai (North East) and Mumbai (North) constituencies. Out of these three constituencies in the alliance, except the Mumbai (North-Central) constituency, Shiv Sena (Thackeray Group) holds two other constituencies. 

In the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance since 2014, Shiv Sena has won both these constituencies consecutively. Although the Shiv Sena has a great influence in this constituency, there is no longer a Shiv Sena-BJP alliance. In such a situation, it will be necessary for Shiv Sena to retain its 'Hindu vote bank' and see how the votes of the allies in the alliance will shift to it.

Thackeray's Shiv Sena being a constituent party of 'India Alliance' may benefit from this. Political analyst Nachiket Kulkarni said, 'After the 1992 riots, the Muslim vote bank in Mumbai shifted to the Samajwadi Party for some time. Over time, it has returned to the Congress. With Uddhav Thackeray's entry into the India alliance, Shiv Sena will surely benefit from the votes of the Congress. It seems very likely that the Muslim community will stand behind those who can defeat the BJP. Even more than what has happened in the past, the Muslim community is worried about their future. A society on the periphery always needs strong social support, which the Muslim community feels with the Congress. The same can be felt with Thackeray's Shiv Sena.'

The alliance needs a majority of Muslim votes for the three constituencies in Mumbai, but doubts are being expressed about whether it will fall to the Shiv Sena candidate. When Uddhav Thackeray started building new branches after the split of Shiv Sena, he opened a Shiv Sena branch in Memonwada on Muslim-majority Mohammad Ali Road. The head of this branch Mukhtar Popere proudly says, 'I am the first Muslim branch head of Shiv Sena. We Shiv Sainiks are angry with how Thackeray had to step down from the post of Chief Minister. Treason has no place in Muslim society. That is why the Muslim community will stay with the Shiv Sena.'

Congress leader and ex-MP Hussain Dalwai has expressed the possibility that Muslim votes will shift towards Shiv Sena in Maharashtra as 'India' is part of the alliance. He says, 'The Muslim community has a strong feeling that the BJP should not come to power. BJP broke the Shiv Sena party by holding its people. Even after that, the challenge raised by Uddhav Thackeray in front of the BJP is admirable. The BJP has criticized the Congress manifesto as having the imprint of the Muslim League.'

Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray, responding to the criticism of the Congress, criticized that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh itself had joined hands with the Muslim League from time to time. With Congress and Shiv Sena coming together, both parties will benefit from it in the elections. 

In my view, how the Shiv Sena views the issues of education, employment, and shelter of the Muslim community is important. In Mumbai, 80 percent of the Muslim community living in the city lives in slums. Only 20 percent of Muslims are upper class, they have no idea about the problems of Muslim society. 75 percent of Muslim students do not study beyond 10th standard. 

During the Congress rule, these problems of Muslims were taken seriously. That is why Dalwai expressed the need for MahavikasAghadi to be strong with Shiv Sena.

Taking care of the previous 'Hindu vote bank' is going to be a skill for Thackeray to get the votes of the Muslims as well. In the last few years, Thackeray has distanced himself from the BJP's Hindutva ideology by explaining that 'Shiv Sena's Hindutva is not a sham. These roles of Thackeray can help change the attitude of the Muslim community towards the Shiv Sena.

ALSO READ: POJK people are no ready to put up with Pak's delusionary Kashmir policy

It seems that the Muslim community will stand behind those who can defeat the BJP. Even more than what has happened in the past, the Muslim community is worried about their future. He has experienced the BJP's dealings with the Muslim community in the last ten years. 

Uddhav Thackeray, who was the Chief Minister of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government for two and a half years in the state, had not been seen as an aggressive Hindu face anywhere. Hence, Muslims may feel close to Thackeray's Shiv Sena. Moreover, since the Congress-Nationalist Congress is together, it can be trusted.