Shahbaz M. Farooq Maniar    

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (earlier known as Aurangabad) is the tourist capital of Maharashtra. The city is known as a historic and multicultural city. Historians believe that Malik Ambar, the military leader of the Nizamshahi of Ahmednagar, founded the city as Khadki in 1610.

The main city and the surrounding area have been a center of political activity since ancient times. Paithan near the main city was the capital of the seven vahanas. Devagiri was the capital of the Yadava dynasty. Muhammad bin Tughlaq, Sultan of the Delhi Sultanate, shifted the capital from Delhi to Daulatabad in 1327. 

In 1636, Aurangzeb became the governor of the Mughal Empire in the south and annexed the city to the Mughal Empire. In 1653, Aurangzeb renamed the city Aurangabad and made it the capital of the Deccan region of the Mughal Empire. For the first few years of the Asaf Jahi Empire, the city of Aurangabad was their capital. Later the capital was moved to Hyderabad.

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (Aurangabad) is a minority-dominated city. According to the 2011 census, the city has a Muslim population of 27 percent, Buddhists 13.17 percent, and Jains 1.34 percent. This means that 42 percent of the city's population is minorities. 

There are three assembly constituencies in the city. Aurangabad East and Aurangabad Central are Muslim-majority constituencies. Aurangabad West is reserved for scheduled castes. In Aurangabad East constituency, Muslim voters are 37.5 percent and Dalit voters are 16.5 percent.

In the first assembly elections of the state, writer, and thinker Rafiq Zakaria became MLA from the Aurangabad constituency. He served as the Urban Development Minister in the state cabinet. New Aurangabad and CIDCO were planned under his guidance. He was called the 'Rachnaakar of Aurangabad' due to the development work done in the region. He was also known as a visionary leader of the Muslim community in Maharashtra.

With the advent of Shiv Sena, politics in the city became based on Hindu-Muslim polarisation. Here politics was centred on the slogan 'Khan Hawa Ki Baan Hawa' (Khan wants, or (Shiv Sena's) arrow) and the issue of renaming the city. Since 1989, BJP-Shiv Sena has been in power in the civic body based on polarisation of Hindu votes.

Aurangabad East constituency remained primarily a BJP stronghold. BJP's Haribhau Bagde was MLA for four consecutive terms from 1985 to 2004. Congress won the seat in 2004 and 2009. Atul Save wrested the seat from the BJP again in 2014. He managed to retain it in 2019.

The 2012 Nanded Municipal Corporation (NMC) elections paved the way for Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM in Telangana to enter Maharashtra politics. Imtiaz Jaleel, from the party that mainly does politics on Muslim issues, became an MLA from Aurangabad Central constituency in his first attempt in the 2014 assembly elections. 

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (Aurangabad) witnessed Hindu-Muslim polarisation in the city after AIMIM entered politics. Every election in the city since 2014 has been either MIM vs Shiv Sena or MIM vs BJP. The following statistics show that the assembly elections of that year were no exception:

Votes secured by different candidates in 2014 Assembly Elections 

 1. Atul Save (BJP) 64528 

 2. Gaffar Qadri (IIM) 60268 

 3. Rajendra Darda (Congress) 21203 

 4. Kala Oja (Shiv Sena) 9093 

In the last two consecutive elections, Congress candidates were elected from this constituency. Rajendra Darda was entrusted with the task of making a hat-trick. The BJP was faced with the challenge of regaining its stronghold. The BJP fielded Atul Save. The MIM was also keen to make its presence felt in Maharashtra. Gaffar Qadri was in the fray from MIM. 

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress faced a humiliating defeat in the Modi wave. BJP fought the 2014 assembly elections on the Modi wave. Both AIMIM and BJP tried to win the elections based on religious polarization. AIMIM depended on the rhetoric and speeches of the Owaisi brothers, while BJP wanted to win the elections on the Modi wave. However, Congress lagged in this direct contest between Hindus and Muslims.

As expected, the final results saw a polarisation of Hindu-Muslim votes. BJP's Atul Save won with 64,528 votes. AIMIM's Gaffar Qadri got 60,268 votes and lost by just 4,260 votes. Even though the AIMIM candidate lost, the votes he received encouraged the party. 

This election gave a different turn to the politics of the city. Three things happened. First, the Hindu-Muslim politics of the city made the Congress almost irrelevant. Second, MIM emerged as the main opposition party in the city. Third, Hindu-Muslim polarization intensified. 

Votes secured by different candidates in the 2019 Assembly Elections 

 1. Atul Save (BJP) 93966 

 2. Ghaffar Qadri (MIM) 80036 

 3. Kaleem Qureshi (SP) 5555 

During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Prakash Ambedkar transformed his Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh into Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and formed a large alliance with Dalits, Muslims, and smaller OBC castes. He formed an alliance with the MIM party for the Lok Sabha.

Main contestants from Aurangabad East Atul Save and Imtiyaz Jaleel

This alliance benefited Imtiaz Jaleel in Aurangabad Lok Sabha. He was elected as MP from Aurangabad Lok Sabha. MIM's strength in the city increased further. Another miracle was expected from the alliance in the assembly, but the alliance soon broke down over seat sharing.

Both parties fought the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections separately. The BJP came to power at the center on its own. The BJP was once again ready to contest the Maharashtra assembly elections against Modi. The BJP and AIMIM fielded their candidates. 

This election, fought based on religious polarisation, witnessed a direct division of Hindu-Muslim votes. Hindu votes were polarised in favour of BJP's Atul Save. He got 93,966 votes. Muslim votes were polarised in favour of AIMIM's Gaffar Qadri.

He got 80,036 votes. Ghaffar Qadri lost by 13,930 votes. Some Muslim votes also went to Samajwadi candidate Kaleem Qureshi, but even if those votes had gone to Ghaffar Qadri, the final result would not have changed.This election made one thing clear: in an environment of religious polarisation, even if a single Muslim candidate gets a single Muslim vote, he cannot win a straight contest. Along with Muslim votes, he needs to get votes from other communities as well.

Assembly Elections 2024 

The period of 2019 to 2024 has seen an evolution in Maharashtra elections. Parties with conflicting ideologies came together to form new alliances. The BJP retained the candidature of Atul Save. The Congress has fielded Lahu Shewale as the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). 

There was confusion in the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Pandurang Tangade filed his nomination from the NCP (Sharad Pawar) party. Renuka Das Vaidya also filed her nomination from the Shiv Sena (Ubata) party. Candidates from all three parties were in the fray in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

Renuka Das Vaidya's application was found invalid, but the party managed to stop Pandurang Tangade's rebellion on the last day of the withdrawal of nominations. However, all is not well in the AIMIM party. Imtiyaz Jaleel's defeat in the Lok Sabha was a setback for the party.Ghaffar Qadri was denied a ticket this time due to his alleged involvement in anti-party activities. The party fielded Imtiyaz Jaleel in his place. After being denied a ticket, Ghaffar Qadri left the party. He was trying to get a ticket from the Congress.

Congress refused to give him a ticket. Finally, he filed a nomination from Samajwadi Party. The party failed to stop the rebellion. If Muslim votes are divided, Imtiaz Jaleel may suffer a lot.

After his victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Prakash Ambedkar took AIMIM's broken alliance with the underprivileged to heart. He alleges that the alliance broke because of Imtiyaz Jaleel, who missed out in the 2019 assembly elections.

AIMIM is engaged in a cold war. Both parties are trying their best to defeat each other's main rivals, which has led to a decline in Muslim political representation. Vanchit had fielded Afsar Khan in Lok Sabha 2024. This divided the Muslim vote. This directly affected Imtiaz Jaleel. He lost.

As soon as Imtiaz Jaleel's candidature was announced in the Assembly elections in 2024, Vanchit replaced its earlier announced candidate. Afsar Khan was re-nominated by The Vanchit. On one hand, Imtiaz Jaleel is being challenged by two Muslim candidates, Ghaffar Qadri and Afsar Khan.

On the other hand, he is pitted against BJP's Atul Save. Imtiaz Jaleel will have to work hard to prevent the division of Muslim votes. Owaisi brothers are camping in the city. His victory will depend on how much Imtiaz Jaleel can prevent the division of Muslim votes. How many votes he can get from other communities for his work of 10 years. 

BJP's Atul Save is getting a relatively easy contest. His own Mahavikas Aghadi ally has alleged that the Congress candidate is weak. Atul Save is in a direct fight with AIMIM's Imtiyaz Jaleel. The BJP is trying its best to polarise Hindu votes by raising slogans like 'Batenge toh katnenge', and 'Vote Jihad' and renaming the city as Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar.  

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This election fought on Hindu-Muslim polarisation is a battle for political survival for Imtiaz Jaleel. He won the 2014 assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections due to division of opposition votes. He has been leading the Muslim community in Maharashtra for the last 10 years. His political honeymoon period is over.

If he loses the election, he will have to fight hard for his political survival in the future. 

(The author is a senior research scholar in the Department of Political Science and Civics, University of Mumbai.)