Muzaffar Khan

In the last Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti candidates were elected from Konkan; however, in all five assembly constituencies of Ratnagiri district, Mahavikas Aghadi candidates received the majority of votes. At that time, the opposition parties succeeded in bringing issues like party splits, constitutional changes, and religious dominance to the voters.

In the assembly elections, all parties are eyeing Dalit and Muslim votes.

Mahayuti faces the challenge of winning by gaining the support of these communities to make up for the deficit in the Lok Sabha, while Mahavikas Aghadi is trying to reach the steps of power by uniting Dalit and Muslim votes. This political situation has led to efforts by both the alliance and the front to polarize votes in the district, and this analysis examines the impact on the five constituencies.

After the major split in Shiv Sena, it remains to be seen whom the people of Konkan people will go with - Shinde or Thackeray faction – in the elections. In rural areas, voters often favour a local candidate but it remains to who the urban voters will vote for.

Although leaders are switching parties, the political workers and voters are expressing their dissatisfaction with turncoats in private discussions. In some places, the role of Muslim and Dalit voters will be decisive.

They feel since there is the possibility of the division of Hindu votes it remains to be seen how will this impact the outcome of elections.

Studying the social characteristics of the MLAs elected from Ratnagiri district in the assembly elections held between 1999 and 2024, it is clear that the Maratha community has maintained its dominance in the region.

The Maratha-Kunbi community, which constitutes about 30 to 32 percent of the population, has dominated the district. In comparison, Brahmins, OBCs, Scheduled Castes, Tribes, and Muslims do not seem to get adequate representation; however, candidates need the support of voters from this community to win.

All the current MLAs in the district are back in the election fray. They face some new faces, while in some places, traditional contests are taking place. Despite having the support of their community and specific communities, some candidates have switched parties or entered the election fray as independents.

 Some have been called by parties and given candidacies based on community votes. Everyone is curious to see who will have an easy victory and who will win by a narrow margin.

Since the 1989 elections, the tendency for caste-based and religious polarization has increased and it’s openly spoken about.

It remains to be seen in this election how much the Maratha and OBC communities in the district have been influenced by reservation issues. Issues like party splits, inflation, unemployment, atrocities against women, raids by the income tax department, industries moving away, constitutional changes, and changes to the Waqf Board law are being discussed in the election campaign. Therefore, tough contests are expected in all five constituencies in the district.

The state government has started many schemes with the assembly elections in mind. Although the Election Commission has put a stay on some schemes, the Mahayuti government's LadkiBahin scheme has proven to be the most effective. In some constituencies in the district, the number of female voters is higher than that of male voters.

Young people from the district are out of the state and country for jobs and businesses. Therefore, women play a decisive role in the actual voting process. Women from all communities have benefited from this scheme. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the LadkiBahini scheme can stop MahavikasAghadi.

All efforts are being made to get the support of Dalit votes in this election. The Republican group is large in the district; however, RPI workers are scattered among various groups. Some are with MahavikasAghadi, while others are with Mahayuti. All candidates are appealing to unite the RPI ideology. This poses a risk of polarization of Dalit votes.

The election results will show which side this community stands with in the assembly elections. A dialogue process has started between the Dalit community and Mahayuti. Efforts are being made to make the Dalit community aware that the call for constitutional change was merely Congress's fake narrative.

Additionally, efforts are being made to counter this narrative due to Rahul Gandhi's statements about reservations. Mahayuti continues to face the challenge of gaining the trust of the Buddhist community, which has the largest population among the backward classes.

In the Lok Sabha elections, MahavikasAghadi did not field a single Muslim candidate, yet the Muslim community, which constitutes 14 percent of the voters in Ratnagiri district, voted for MahavikasAghadi. Therefore, Mahavikas Aghadi remained ahead in the district.

This time, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena has fielded seven Muslim candidates in Mumbai. Their campaign is ongoing on social media. By bringing forward the Waqf Board bill, the Modi government has indicated that its anti-Muslim policy remains. Some BJP leaders are consistently targeting Muslims. They fear that incidents supporting this perception are happening.

Nevertheless, both Shiv Sena factions and NCP factions are trying to get Muslim votes. It will be clear from the election how much the BJP-promoted Hindutva ideology voters like the candidates' love for Muslims.

Challenges Facing Mahayuti

* Failure to develop leadership among Neo-Buddhists

* Challenge of making up for the deficit in the Lok Sabha

* Background of Dalit atrocities in other BJP-ruled states

* Lack of strong Dalit and Muslim leadership in Mahayuti

* Tarnished image due to party splits

MahavikasAghadi's Strategy

* Emphasizing the issue of the constitution being in danger

* Campaigning about injustices against backward class officers

* Informing people that backward-class corporations are not receiving funds

* Highlighting that funds and scholarships for BARTI schemes are not being received on time

* Targeting Mahayuti on issues like atrocities against women, unemployment, Maharashtra's decline, and projects moving to Gujarat

Focus on Minority Votes

Victory depends on vote division and polarization rather than development work. Although Mahayuti's focus is entirely on Hindutva, MahavikasAghadi will also share in these votes. On the other hand, the division of Muslim votes is considered certain, creating competition in the election. The outcome will depend on which side benefits from the polarization of Hindu and Muslim votes.

In the Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti candidates were affected by the anti-minority stance. In Chiplun taluka, Mahayuti candidates could not even reach a hundred votes in any locality. While preparing for the assembly elections, candidates in the district have started trying to win over the minority community.

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In the Chiplun and Ratnagiri assembly constituencies, the votes of the minority community will be decisive. MahavikasAghadi is campaigning that a vote for Ajit Pawar's NCP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena is a vote for BJP. Videos of BJP leaders' anti-Muslim statements are being circulated on social media. Mahayuti candidates are trying to attract minority votes by visiting Muslim prayer sites and funding their social initiatives.