Pradnya Shinde

The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections came as a shock to many. In the Lok Sabha elections, the MahavikasAghadi achieved a surprising victory, whereas, in the Assembly elections, the Mahayuti claimed a historic win. In both of these elections, the voting pattern in the Muslim-majority constituencies played a crucial role. Here we analyse the results of these Muslim-majority constituencies.

Maharashtra Polls: Analysis

In the Lok Sabha elections, Muslim voters supported the MahavikasAghadi. However, as in the Lok Sabha elections, the MahavikasAghadi again neglected the political representation of the Muslim community during the Assembly elections, which led to dissatisfaction among the community towards it.

During the electioneering, slogans like 'Batenge Toh, katoge' (Divided you fall) and 'Vote Jihad' created confusion regarding the Mahayuti as well. In such a situation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan "Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai" resonated with people. Whom did the Muslim voter cast their vote for, especially in 38 constituencies with more than 20% Muslim population.

This article analyses the outcome of the top-10 Muslim-majority constituencies in the elections:

Malegaon Central constituency with the highest Muslim voter population saw a battle between Maulana Mufti Mohammad Ismail (AIMIM) and Asif Sheikh (ISLAM). The couning of votes here turned out to be the most exciting part of the exervise. For several rounds of counting, Asif Sheikh, founder of the 'Islam' party and former MLA, was leading. However, after the 15th round, Maulana Mufti Mohammad Ismail took the lead. In a nail-biting finish, Maulana Mufti Mohammad Ismail won with a small margin of 162 votes.

An elderly Muslim woman being taken to the Polling booth in Mumbai

Mumbadevi- The Muslim population in Mumbadevi is 53%. Even though the Mahayuti government secured a massive majority in the state, Congress won the Mumbadevi Assembly seat. Congress's Amin Patel won after the 17th round of counting with 74,990 votes, defeating Shiv Sena’s Shayna N.C by 34,844 votes. Amin Patel had also won this seat in the 2019 elections and was re-elected this time.

Bhiwandi West - In the Bhiwandi West constituency, 52% of the population is Muslim. Despite this, the BJP achieved a significant victory. BJP candidate Mahesh Prabhakar Chougule defeated Samajwadi Party's candidate Azmi Riyaz Mukimuddin by 31,293 votes. Mahesh Chougule secured 70,172 votes, while Azmi Riyaz Mukimuddin got 38,879 votes. BJP has had a strong hold in this constituency from the beginning.

Mankhurd Shivajinagar -Mankhurd Shivajinagar with 51% Muslim population saw a faceoff between two prominent Muslim leaders Abu Azmi, a three time MLA and NCPs Nawab Malik. It was expected that Malik would give Azmi a tough time. Interestingly Malik finished fourth with just 15,501 votes while Azmi won with 54,780 votes by defeating AIMIM’s Aatik Ahmed Khan and Shiv Sena’s Suresh Patil. Azmi was re-elected as the MLA from Mankhurd Shivajinagar for the fourth time with a victory margin of 12,753 votes.

Bhiwandi East- Bhiwandi East has 50% Muslim population. Here, Samajwadi Party’s Rais Kasam Khan won, defeating Shiv Sena's Santosh Shetty by 67,672 votes. Rais Kasam Khan won for the second consecutive time from this constituency.

Byculla constituency which has 43% Muslim population led to the defeat of Mahayuti. Former MLA Yamini Jadhav was defeated by Shiv Sena’s (Uddhav Thackeray faction) Manoj Jamsutkar.

Mumbra-Kalwa - In this constituency, NCP leader Jitendra Awhad, who had been elected as MLA from this constituency for three terms, faced a challenge after the split in NCP. Jitendra Awhad remained with Sharad Pawar, while Najib Mulla and Anand Paranjpe joined Ajit Pawar. Najib Mulla contested against Jitendra Awhad in this election. However, Najib Mulla lost by almost one lakh votes. Mulla received 60,821 votes, while Jitendra Awhad won with 1,56,675 votes, securing his fourth consecutive victory.

A Muslim voter flaunting her ink mark after casting her vote in Mumbai central

Aurangabad East - In Aurangabad East, 40% of the population is Muslim. This high-profile constituency saw a nail-biting contest, with BJP ultimately emerging victorious. Imtiaz Jaleel, former MP, needed to win this seat. BJP's Atul Save won with 93,274 votes, defeating AIMIM's Imtiaz Jaleel, who received 91,113 votes, by just 2,161 votes. It was a close contest, with both candidates leading alternately. Congress also fielded Lahu Hanmant Rao Shewale, but he suffered a crushing defeat.

Aurangabad Central: This constituency has 37% Muslim population, and there were no major Muslim candidates. Shiv Sena’s Dr.Balasaheb Thorat had to accept defeat here. In the Aurangabad Central Assembly elections, the Shiv Sena from the Mahayuti fielded Jayswal Pradeep Shivnarayan, while the Shiv Sena from the MahavikasAghadi fielded Dr.Balasaheb Thorat. Jayswal Pradeep Shivnarayan won with 85,459 votes, maintaining his dominance in this seat.

Parbhan constituency has 36% Muslim population. In Maharashtra's Parbhani Assembly, the battle was between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray. The Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray candidate, Dr. Rahul Vedprakash Patil, defeated Shiv Sena’s Anand Bharose by 34,216 votes. Dr. Rahul won with 1,26,803 votes, while Anand Bharose received 92,587 votes. Dr. Rahul Patil has maintained Shiv Sena’s winning streak in Parbhani, as the seat has been won by Shiv Sena since 1990.

Mahayuti's victory in Muslim-majority constituencies

There are 38 constituencies in Maharashtra where the Muslim population is more than 20%. Of these, Mahayuti has won in 22 constituencies. BJP has claimed 14 seats, while Shiv Sena has won 6. NCP, under the leadership of Ajit Pawar, has won two seats in these Muslim-majority constituencies.

On the other hand, MahavikasAghadi has won only 13 out of 38 seats. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has won six seats, while NCP’s Sharad Pawar faction has won two. In 2019, Congress had won 11 of these constituencies, but this time it only managed to win 5 seats. Congress’s performance in other constituencies has been weak, and its vote share has declined.

AIMIM’s dismal show

This election was disappointing for AIMIM. In 2019, the party had won two seats. However, this time, AIMIM contested in 16 constituencies but could only win Malegaon Central. Maulana Ismail won the seat with a narrow margin of just 162 votes. AIMIM's performance has been steadily declining, and even its leader Imtiaz Jaleel lost in Aurangabad East to a BJP candidate. The victory margin in Malegaon was also much smaller compared to the last elections.

BJP’s strategic success in Muslim-majority constituencies

BJP implemented a strong strategy in Muslim-majority constituencies, and by winning key seats such as Andheri West, Bhiwandi West, Nagpur Central, and Solapur Central, they have shown their ability to enter even Muslim-majority areas. This is a result of BJP’s extensive organizational strength and excellent coordination with its allies.

Unchanged number of Muslim MLAs

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Like in 2019, this time too, only 10 Muslim MLAs were elected to the Assembly. Among them are Congress’s Amin Patel, Aslam Sheikh, and Sajad Pathan, NCP’s Hasan Mushrif and Sana Malik, Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray’s Haroon Khan, Shiv Sena’s Abdul Sattar,

AIMIM’s Imtiaz Jaleel, and Samajwadi Party’s Rais Kasam Khan. Despite Muslims constituting about 12% of the state's population, their representation in the assembly has remained limited.