Pallab Bhattacharyya

The initial spark of student protests began in Bangladesh in July 2024 as an expression of opposition to a government-ordered job quota system, which promised to reserve up to 30% of government jobs for families of veterans from Bangladesh's 1971 War of Independence. The protesters, primarily students, deemed this system discriminatory, arguing it disproportionately benefited Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's supporters.

The situation turned violent on 16th July 2024 with clashes between protesters, security forces, and pro-government activists. The government used tear gas shells and rubber bullets, imposed a curfew with a shoot-on-sight order, and cut off internet and mobile data access.

The Supreme Court reduced the veterans' quota to 5%, leaving 93% for the open-merit candidates and the remaining 2% for ethnic minorities, transgender individuals, and specially-abled people. However, the unrest persisted and grew. Reports indicate that over 300 people had died, with nearly 1,500 injured.

PM Hasina accused protesters of "sabotage" and re-imposed internet restrictions. She offered to engage in dialogue, which student leaders refused.

The ruling Awami League party blamed opposition parties for instigating the violence. The latter denied it but supported the protesters' demand for Hasina's resignation.

On the 5th August 2024, amid escalating protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and reportedly fled to an unknown European location via India. Military chief Waker-Uz-Zaman suggested an interim military government and called for calm, urging the students to go home.

The military hints at aligning with the protesters, indicating a potential military takeover. The army chief remarks that the military "always stands by the people."

A scene of Dhaka Street before Sheikh Hasina's exit

Implications for India

The protests highlight underlying economic issues: declining exports, dwindling foreign reserves, and scarcity of quality jobs for young graduates. The situation represents a critical juncture for Bangladesh given the history of military coups and political instability.The assassination of the founder of Bangladesh and father of present PM Sheikh Hasina, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in a military coup on 15th August 1975, led to a series of military coups and political upheavals in the country.

The political instability and potential military takeover in Bangladesh can have significant implications for India, particularly for the state of Assam. Some of these are:

The instability may lead to an increase in infiltration across the India-Bangladesh border as people flee the turmoil, looking for safety and economic stability.

India has already issued a high alert along the border, indicating concerns about increased illegal immigration.

The statement made by BJP West Bengal BJP leader that one Crore infiltrators may come to India and as per CAA, India is duty bound to accept them. This will be a cause of concern as CAA stipulates 31st December 2014 as the cut-off date.

Political instability in Bangladesh could disrupt bilateral trade, affecting economic relations. Ports and land routes used for trade might face interruptions, impacting Indian businesses reliant on Bangladeshi goods.

A jubilant crowd in Dhaka after Sheikh Hasina's resignation and leaving the country

Unstable governance in Bangladesh could lead to increased activities of groups inimical to India, posing a threat to India's internal security. The potential for spillover effects from Bangladesh’s internal conflict might necessitate stronger intelligence and security measures

Assam has historically been impacted by immigration from Bangladesh. The current turmoil could exacerbate this. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has supported insurgent groups like the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA). A return of BNP influence or a vacuum in governance might embolden these groups, leading to an increase in anti-national activities in Assam.

The political upheaval and potential rise of extremist factions in Bangladesh could spark radicalization among segments of Indian Muslims, particularly in Assam where a significant portion of Assam’s Muslim population has roots in erstwhile East Pakistan.

India needs to enhance border vigil against infiltration and utilize technologies like drones and sensors to monitor border activities.

Though refugee influx is a remote possibility yet we should be ready for it. Maintaining economic channels to mitigate trade disruptions and support businesses affected by the instability is the order of the day.

Inside, India must increase community outreach programs to engage Muslim communities in Assam and other parts of India to counter radicalism.

India must continue diplomatic engagement with the new regime in Dhaka so that countries like Pakistan and China cannot fish in troubled waters.

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As we watch the unfolding crisis in Bangladesh, it's essential to remember the words of political theorist Hannah Arendt: "The most radical revolutionary will become a conservative the day after the revolution”

The writer is a retired Director General of Assam Police and former Chairman Assam Public Service Commission