Aditi Bhaduri

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a historical visit to Kyiv on 23rd August in what is believed to be a balancing act. India shares a special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia, depending on it for much of its weapons procurement, and now more recently on heavily discounted Russian crude oil. India has so far not condemned Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine; and has refused to vote for any anti-Russian resolution in the United Nations or to adhere to any of the many sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. This has made India a target of strong Western and even Ukrainian criticism since Russia launched its attack on Ukraine. 

Modi's Moscow visit, especially, coming during NATO's 75th summit celebrations in Washington, was criticized by the US as well as by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

However, credit goes to the Indian Government for keeping up its bilateral relations with Kyiv too. Modi has met with Zelensky on several occasions,  most recently in June this year in Italy on the sidelines of the G7 summit. India has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The country's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba visited Delhi in March. India has also participated in all the international conferences on the Ukraine crisis, most recently in Switzerland. 

Though India has not explicitly condemned Russia's military operations in Ukraine, it has not endorsed them either. On multiple occasions, both Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have reiterated calls for talks and a diplomatic negotiated way to peace. Even in Moscow last month during the televised segment of talks Modi told Putin that "solutions are not possible on the battleground" and Moscow and Kyiv should resolve their conflict through dialogue and diplomacy, and that "... India is ready to cooperate in all ways...” 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv

Even in Kyiv, he reiterated this call, asking Zelensky to give diplomacy a chance, urging him to talk to Putin, underscoring the fact that India had never been "neutral" in the conflict and always been on the "side of peace". 

What can Modi's visit achieve?  

Currently, Modi is one of the few global leaders who can talk simultaneously to Putin, Biden, and Zelensky, and this visit is proof of this. 

Despite their strong criticism of Modi's Moscow visit, the US, and even Zelenskyy for that matter, have conceded that Modi's strong equation with Putin gives India leverage to act as a peacemaker. India's purchase of Russian oil is another lever, as these sales are indispensable to keep the Russian economy running. The European Union has, earlier, also called upon India to act to bring an end to the conflict. 

This certainly gives India an edge over others like China, which has floated its peace formula on Ukraine and has found no takers in the West. 

Following Modi's visit John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications authentication White House National Security Council said "If Modi's trip to Kyiv and meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can help move the needle towards an end-of-conflict scenario that is consistent with the Ukrainian leader's vision, then we think that would be helpful.." stressing that Modi was a "strong and good partner" for Washington. 

Soon after on Monday, 26th August US President Joe Biden called up Modi and they discussed the Ukraine conflict, amongst other things. Modi posted on his X account that he "reiterated India's full support for early return of peace and stability.  The White House in 8ts statement said that Biden commended Modi's recent visit to Poland and Ukraine,  and both leaders expressed "support for a peaceful resolution of the conflict by international law,  based on the UN Charter."

Russia's Response to Modi's Kyiv Visit 

Initially, Russia seemed to have responded to the visit with understanding.  Russian analysts noted that in their long years of partnership, India has never let down Russia in the international arena, even hinting that India may produce a draft initiative of its own at the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan in October.

Following the visit, analysts underscored that the visit would be unable to play any significant role in conflict resolution, pointing to the new Ukrainian attacks and incursion into Russia's Kursk region, where Ukraine continues to hold territory. 

The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister also met with the Indian Ambassador in Moscow to explain Russia's position on the conflict and negotiations with Ukraine.

PM Narendra Modi with President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy

Russian state media kept up steady reports of Modi's Ukraine visit.

Following the Ukrainian attack on Russia, Putin said talks with those who "indiscriminately attack civilians, civilian infrastructure, or try to create threats to nuclear energy facilities" is impossible. However,  his aide Yuri Ushakov later clarified that Putin's earlier conditions for a ceasefire and talks, which included, inter alia, a full Ukrainian withdrawal from "new" Russian territories, (Russia claims in entirety the region of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia), an official pledge by Kyiv to not join NATO and to undertake demilitarization and de-Nazification, and to adopt a neutral, non-bloc, and non-nuclear status, and for sanctions against Russia to be revoked, still stood but currently, Russia wouldn't talk to Kyiv, given its on-going "adventurism.

Meanwhile, Ukraine wants a total Russian withdrawal from them and is even on the offensive. In a further escalation of the conflict, Russia has responded to Kyiv's incursions into Russian territory with an all-out drone and missile attack on multiple places.

Against this backdrop and a day after Bidens call with Modi, Putin called up Modi and further discussed the current state of the conflict.  While Modi briefed him on his visit to Ukraine, Putin underscored his position about the destructive politics of the authorities in Kyiv and their Western patrons.

The path ahead

Ahead of his trip to Poland and Kyiv, Modi announced on X that he will “share perspectives on the peaceful resolution of the ongoing Ukraine conflict... As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region." 

Indeed, India has played a constructive role in the conflict on several occasions. It had mediated the Black Sea grains deal as well as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant safety deal between the two sides, as was later made known by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. The US has also acknowledged that it was because of countries like India and China that a possible nuclear catastrophe was averted. In this context, Modi's Kyiv visit is just a matter of course.  And there could have been no other timing than soon after visiting Moscow. 

Following the visit, Zelenskyy held a press conference for the visiting Indian media. The reports from it have not been flattering of Modi's visit. In particular, Zelensky stressed India's purchase of Russian oil. India and China have emerged as the biggest buyers of Russian crude, which throws the Russian economy an invaluable lifeline.

While urging India to play a bigger role in the resolution of the conflict,  Zelensky proposed that India could host the next peace summit on Ukraine. Switzerland had hosted the first in June this year, but to which Russia had not been invited.  Russia had called the summit illogical and futile. Zelensky's proposal, however,  had a rider attached to it. He called on India to sign the communique of the Swiss conference.  India, along with several countries had refrained from signing the communique, considering it to be a unilateral document, which had among other things, called for Ukrainian control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,  freedom of navigation through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and exchange of prisoners. It is difficult to envisage India signing on to the document now.

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As it stands matters have become far more complicated than when Modi planned his historical visit to Kyiv. For India,  the Ukraine conflict is a European war, essentially a face-off between Ukraine and NATO on one hand, and Russia, backed by China on the other. India, like many other countries of the Global South,  is caught in the middle. It must be careful that a foreign war does not impinge on its interests. 

With his visit to Ukraine, Modi has proved that India is batting for nothing but peace. It is in India’s interest that the conflict ends soon before it is further pushed to pick a side. India has done well to visit Ukraine and to offer its willingness to do all it can to get the conflicting sides to the negotiating table.