Aditi Bhaduri

The Middle East is on edge again, this time over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran, in a compound under the supervision of Iran’s elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the assassination, Iran has, of course, pointed fingers at Tel Aviv. Israel is bracing itself for an Iranian strike. Much back-channel diplomacy is going on to dissuade Iran from making such a strike and to force Israel to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Hamas has announced that Yahyiha Shinwsr would be its new head. Shinwar is alleged to be the mastermind of the 7 October 2023 multipronged Hamas attacks on Southern Israel which left 1200 Israelis, mostly civilians dead, and more than 200, including toddlers, as hostages of the Hamas. They are held in the Gaza Strip. Over 150 Israelis are still being held captive in Gaza. Meanwhile, almost 37,000 Gazans have lost their lives in the relentless Israeli attacks there since October.

In this charged scenario Dr. Haytham Mouzahem, Director of the Centre for Asian and Chinese Studies, shared with Aditi Bhaduri his thoughts on what the current tensions in West Asia presage: 

There is speculation that it was not Israel but internal Palestinian rivals that killed Ismail Haniyeh. There are also some rumours that it was Iran itself. What are your thoughts on this?

These are unrealistic and illogical speculations that contradict the fact that Israel, through its media and some of its officials, has revealed that Israel is behind the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and has not denied doing so, although it has not officially claimed responsibility for it.

As for why Palestinian opponents would assassinate Hanieh now during the ongoing aggression on the Gaza Strip, and do they have the ability to do that in Tehran in this way?

As for Iran, what interest does it have in killing a major ally during a raging war in which it supports the resistance in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq?

Iran has never ventured into a direct conflict with any country since the Iran-Iraq war. Even in April when it blamed Israel for attacks on its Damascus mission, we saw limited strikes on Israel, almost reluctant. Do you think Iran would launch an attack on Israel shortly?

Iran used strategic patience in its conflict with Israel and preferred a proxy war due to the lack of common borders or a secret war against the Israeli entity. However, after the bombing of its consulate in Damascus and the killing of several Revolutionary Guard leaders, Iran responded limitedly but with a symbolic significance, indicating that it is capable of striking deep inside Israel at any time and that it will not allow its sovereignty to be violated, whether its lands, waters, airspace or diplomatic missions.

Therefore, Iran announced that it will respond to the killing of [Ismail] Haniyeh, but it is not in a hurry to do so and will not specify the time and place but will leave it to the readiness of the target.

In addition, there are diplomatic efforts to convince Tehran not to respond in exchange for stopping the aggression on the Gaza Strip, which Iran is allowing to verify its validity.

However, even if Iran delays its revenge that does not mean it will not retaliate later in some direct or indirect ways.

How will new Iranian pPesident Masoud Pezheskian handle the crisis with Israel on one hand and with the West on the other? He has promised to improve Iran’s relations with the West and even get rid of the sanctions.

The issue of the position on Israel and support for resistance movements is not decided by the President of the Republic of Iran alone, but also by the National Security Council, which is subject to the supervision of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The same applies to the [Iran’s] relationship with the West and the nuclear program.

Therefore, the priority now for the Iranian president and regime is to confront Israel and retaliate for the renewed violation of its sovereignty and the assassination of its guest Ismail Haniyeh to create a balance of deterrence with Israel so that it does not repeat its attacks and assassinations inside Iran. What ] would] prevent Israel from assassinating senior Iranian leaders inside the country again if the assassination of Haniyeh goes without a response?

As for the issue of relations with the West and the lifting of sanctions, it is linked to negotiations for reviving the nuclear deal and this will depend on the desire of the United States of America and the European Union to return to the nuclear negotiations with Iran and reach a new agreement or revive the 2015 nuclear agreement.

How do you think the assassination of Haniyeh will impact HAMAS?

Of course, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh is a great loss for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, and it will leave a vacuum but Hamas can fill this vacuum due to the presence of other competent and loyal leaders. Also, the selection of Yahya Sinwar as head of the movement’s political bureau is a message that Hamas is continuing its resistance approach and will not compromise its principles and conditions for reaching a ceasefire agreement.

Will the Hezbollah engage in a full-blown war with Israel anytime in the future? If not, why?

Hezbollah does not want to enter into a comprehensive war with Israel at present because of its repercussions on Lebanon, the region, and Iran, as Netanyahu wants to involve America in this war. However, if Israel launches this war, Hezbollah is ready to wage it and will make Israel pay a heavy price due to the party’s advanced military capabilities.

We have recently witnessed China playing an active role in pushing diplomacy in the Middle East. It brokered a truce between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and more recently it brokered a deal between different Palestinian factions.  What is the Chinese role, if any, in the current tensions between Iran and Israel?

China is trying to play a pivotal role in the Middle East by brokering a truce between Iran and Saudi Arabia and recently mediating with 14 Palestinian factions. The Middle East (West Asia) is quite important for Chinese interests, especially regarding energy imports. Hence, regional stability guarantees the stability of its oil imports which is the basis of its (China's) industry and production.

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But China cannot mediate between Iran and Israel now because this issue, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is an exclusive issue of the United States. China has no leverage on  Israel to convince it to stop the war on Gaza. However, Iran has good relations with China, but its confrontation with Israel is based on Ideology and religion. However, Beijing may play a role in reducing the tension by convincing Iran to delay or cancel its revenge for Haniyeh's assassination.