Aditi Bhaduri 

The recent Crocus City Hall terrorist attack near Moscow has turned the spotlight on the tiny Central Asian country of Tajikistan. All the four attackers arrested so far turned out to be ethnic Tajiks and and the Islamic State-Khorasan owned the attack. President Vladimir Putin, however, pointed the finger at Ukraine and said the attackers had traveled towards the Ukraine border after committing the attacks and a "window" was ready for them to flee. Nikolai Pyatrushov, the Chief of Russia's Security Council reiterated the same. 

Behind The News

Almost three weeks later, it is clear that irrespective of who the orders for the carnage came from, the hands that carried it out were radicalized Tajiks who had sworn allegiance to ISIS-K. What is alarming is that this is not the first instance of Tajiks being caught carrying out mass attacks. Earlier this year, the Kermanshah bombings in Iran on the anniversary of slain Iranian General Qasim Solemani, were also claimed by the ISIS-KP, and Tajiks carried it out. 

Over the last year, 10 cases of Tajik nationals as members of radical groups or involved in terror attacks have been found. Even in Iran, a Tajik national opened fire in an act of terror in Shiraz at the mausoleum of Shah Cherah, one of the holiest sites.

Recently the Italian media reported that a 32-year Tajik national was arrested in Rome on charges of terrorism and he turned out to be a member of the Islamic State. 

According to the Tajik expert on countering violent extremism Rustam Azizi, the presence of Tajiks in these cases while alarming does not mean that it is only Tajiks who are predominant in these radical groups, especially in IS. He says in these cases, like in Iran or more recently in Moscow, Tajiks were the easiest pick for the terror recruiters.

For instance, Tajiks, who speak a form of Persian, could access the site in Kerman more easily than say Arab-speaking ISIS members whose mere presence would have immediately aroused suspicion. Similarly in Moscow where Tajik nationals, as part of the CIS, are found in droves as migrant labour, they were easier to be recruited for attacks. They could easily access venues without arousing suspicion. 

Azizi's inference is true, but this is also a fact that it does ring alarm bells and puts the spotlight on Tajikistan. However, for those who track the region, this is neither a new phenomenon nor surprising. 

Central Asia has been vulnerable to radicalization, a process that has its roots in the Afghan jihad against the erstwhile USSR. In the aftermath of the Afghan jihad in the 1980s, and the breakup of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, radicalization spilled over into the frontline Central Asian states, including Tajikistan which has the longest – 1357 km - border with Afghanistan. Uzbekistan also shared a long border with Afghanistan and was also affected. Jihadist movements such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad of Uzbekistan, and the Islamic Renaissance Party in Tajikistan fought long-drawn battles with states in the region.

Tajikistan is ethnically, linguistically, and culturally connected to the Tajik population across the border in Afghanistan. What happens in Afghanistan spills over into Tajikistan and vice versa.

Soon after it emerged as a sovereign state from the debris of the erstwhile USSR, the authorities in Tajikistan - secular in the Soviet style - fought a long and bitter civil war with the Islamist opposition - the Islamic Renaissance Party. Hundreds of Tajiks then fled to Afghanistan and took shelter there. When the Taliban took over Kabul in 1996, and the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance mounted a strong resistance to it, Tajikistan supported it. Tajikistan at that time became the conduit for supplies and support from Russia, Iran, and India to the Northern Alliance.

Along with these, non-violent movements such as the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate, remain active in Central Asia.

This paved the way later for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to lure thousands of men, sometimes with families, from these countries, as well as from Russia’s Muslim provinces. According to Kremlin estimates in 2015, 5,000 to 7,000 recruits from Central Asia and Russia were fighting alongside ISIL.

The former police commander of Tajikistan Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov became IS’s ‘Minister of War’ in 2016. Russian-speaking recruits formed the third-largest group of ISIS fighters. Tajikistan, for example, repatriated almost 500 citizens, including women and children, from Iraq and Syria.

However, with the relocation of IS to Afghanistan, the specter of religious radicalism and potential civil strife and unrest continues to haunt these Muslim-majority, but staunchly secular, former USSR constituents. Interestingly, much of the recruitment of Tajiks today happens not inside Tajikistan but in countries where Tajiks migrate for work, like Russia, Turkey, and parts of Europe. This is because Tajik authorities keep a hawk's eyes, strict control, and monitor any suspicious activity.

Speaking to the Tajik media, Azizi outlined three categories of Tajik recruits to radicalization. The first category comprises those who are facing a crisis of identity and are in search of a new identity. These are usually the youth, from modern or "mixed" families, secular, or in the Tajik context "Russified". Such people under the circumstances of national governments find it difficult to come to terms with their mixed identity and try to compensate for it with heightened religiosity. 

According to data, some of the most radicalized Tajiks are those who are recent converts to Islam, or those who have recently begun practicing the religion, while being born into it.

The second category comprises those with a criminal bent of mind. Many ISIS members, not just from Tajikistan, but also from Europe, are those with a criminal past. Such people are easy recruits as they can continue to keep doing what they like to, while simultaneously receiving a "bonus" for it as they are assured they are carrying out "God's work".  

The third, and largest category of recruits, are those who are recruited for the lowest jobs, offering themselves as "cannon fodder". This is a category of those from marginalized groups of unsuccessful people, often with low levels of education and income, and usually from remote and rural regions They have a high level of unconscious religiosity, which makes them submissive and prone to brainwashing, and can be easily manipulated. 

Either way, Tajikistan, with one of the lowest economic indices amongst the CIS countries, has a major problem on its hands. Soon after the Moscow attacks authorities arrested 9 people. 

In February 2022 the Canada-based think-tank International Forum for Rights and Security warned of a greater threat of IS expansion into Central Asia “taking advantage of their relevance as raw material supplier” with the potential to threaten Russia and China. This threat has been realized. Moreover, the same year - in 2022 - an Uzbek national was arrested by Russian authorities on charges that as part of ISIS, he was planning to travel to India to carry out terrorist activities. 

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ISIS-K represents in many ways a bigger threat. As a regionally focused group, located in the badlands of Af-Pak, it becomes a regional rather than a global threat. Therefore, it may not be battled globally, and it will be up to the regional powers alone to fight and eliminate this threat. India becomes in such a scenario particularly vulnerable.