Aditi Bhaduri 

So finally Taliban representatives are in Delhi. They are also present in Afghan consulates in Mumbai and Hyderabad. This is inevitable, no matter how daunting the prospects of New Delhi dealing with the Taliban on an even keel are. Yet, India has been the latecomer in the entire region to establish ties with the Taliban. And how could it be otherwise?

Who can forget the brutal hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC 814? Or the indiscriminate target of Indian personnel and workers in Afghanistan  -  by the very same Taliban? The same Tal8ban that gave refuge to Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda terrorists, and that facilitated the birth of the even worse ISIS? 

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Yet, in a strange twist of fate and through events beyond India's control, they are back in power today, after being overthrown and battled by the world's only superpower - the USA. But, as there are no permanent friends or foes in politics but only permanent interests, it is now in India's interest to establish ties with the Taliban. 

For 20 years since overthrowing the first Taliban government in Kabul in 2022, the USA as well as the international community has pumped, billions of dollars in aid, governance, capacity building, and the country's reconstruction. New governments were formed including both the dominant community of Pashtuns as well as the largest minority of Tajiks and others. But all this could not dominate the Taliban, which with major support from Pakistan’s ISI - continued an insurgency, killing hundreds of both foreign and Afghan civilians as well as military personnel.  India was not spared either although it committed some 2 billion dollars; there were numerous Taliban-connected attacks on Indian interests and personnel. 

Meanwhile, the US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's government unleashed another powerful danger - the ISIS or Daesh group. The ISIS proved far more dangerous for the international community than the Taliban. While the Taliban laid claims to Afghan territory, ISIS pushed for building a worldwide Caliphate. By seizing territory and setting up a makeshift state, ISIS was able to attract recruits from across the world, including women, and older people. 

The Central Asian countries, along with Russia which has a large Muslim population,  were particularly vulnerable. At one time ISIS had an estimated 5000 Russian-speaking fighters, part of the reason that Russia militarily intervened in Syria's civil war to protect then-President Bashar AL Assad's regime there.

Taliban leadersof Afghanistan's ruling regime

On the other hand, the entrenched US presence in the neighborhood made countries like Iran, China, and Russia uneasy. 

The Taliban took on the ISIS encroaching into Afghan territory, while the US-backed governments proved fragile. The Taliban gained control over border regions of Afghanistan and unofficially also entered into business with neighboring countries like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, buying power, and consumer products from them, entering into border trade necessary for the economy of the countries too. As the roundabout between Central and South Asia,  Afghanistan also provides huge opportunities in connectivity and trade routes between South Asia, and the landlocked countries of Central Asia. All these factors led to a rethink in the countries' approach to the Taliban. 

An incident on March 4 provides a clue. That day Russian security forces neutralized an alleged affiliate of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Moscow, thwarting a planned terrorist attack on a synagogue and the city’s subway system. The suspect was a Russian citizen originally from Central Asia.

Given the continuing government weakness in confronting the Taliban and ISIS which was making rapid inroads into Afghanistan, it soon became obvious that not only would the Taliban soon gain control of Kabul, but it also seemed that they would perhaps be the one to counter the ISIS threat there.

Russia, China, Iran, and the Central Asian countries had all suffered during the first Afghan jihad with refugee inflows, religious radicalization, jihadism, and narcotics smuggling on their territory. This could not be allowed all over again.

All of them, except Tajikistan, opened channels of communication with the Taliban, coordinating local and border security and trade while India held back. 

Salma Dam in Afghanistan built by India

The first Donald Trump administration's agreement with the Taliban in Doha in February 2020 vindicated the stand of these countries. India was left alone, and despite all the aid and investments in Afghanistan had to halt all its operations there and brings its presence to a standstill. From dams to parliament to historical monuments, India has been actively involved in building Afghan infrastructure and society.

The Taliban has held saying Kabul since August 2021. They have made numerous overtures to the international community, including India, promising good neighborly relations, as well as security. The Taliban has on many occasions pledged against permitting Afghan territory to be used to launch attacks on other states.

While there has not been any formal recognition of the Taliban government so far, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have already removed the group from their list of proscribed and terrorist organizations, allowing the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan (IEA), the official Taliban nomenclature for Afghanistan to take charge of the diplomatic missions in their countries. China has gone a step ahead and even stationed its Ambassador in Kabul inking deals in Afghanistan's lucrative metals and mining sector.

The only wise thing, for India then, was to follow the countries - except China - with whom India shares cordial and close relations. Even with China, India shares the same risks and dangers regarding Afghanistan. Other countries, with which India also has close relations, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia,  as well as of course Qatar which had continued to provide a platform to the Taliban from the time it was overthrown in 2022 have also all been engaging with it. India alone risked disconnecting itself from the dominant trend and these emerging alignments in the neighborhood.

The continuing ISIS-Khorasan Province - the ISIS branch in South Asia only adds to the urgency of establishing working relations with the Taliban.  

After years of refusing to engage with the group Indian representatives first met directly with Taliban officials in Moscow during a round of Moscow-format talks on Afghanistan. Later it met with Taliban officials in multilateral settings in places like Uzbekistan and Qatar. India has continued to dispatch humanitarian aid to Afghanistan even after the Taliban takeover.

In 2022 India reopened its embassy in Kabul, with a "technical team" operating there.  

The recent conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan also proves that while the Taliban may have been created by Pakistan, it is no longer under the latter's control and is independent in its policies and activities.  This cannot be but a big relief for India. 

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri's recent meeting with the acting Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai may be regarded as a watershed moment in Indo-Afghan relations. 

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However, given the continuing turmoil in Afghanistan, and the unabated ISIS-KP March in the region as the recent Moscow incident reveals, India will be treading very slowly and cautiously with the Taliban. 

Aditi Bhaduriis an independent journalist and writes on Middle East and Central Asian affairs